A Detailed analysis of the Leading Parties and their chances in Malawi Elections 2009

Bingu wa Mutharika & Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

Analysts agree that there has not been any time since Malawi turned a multiparty democracy in 1993 that Malawians have had reason to be hopeful of a better future than during the time Bingu has been at the helm of government.

In comparison with Muluzi who ruled the country between 1994 and 2004, Bingu has achieved considerably in his first five year term in various key sectors. Malawi has not begged for food for the past five years, In fact, it has been able to donate food to other countries in Africa. The economy has been stable making the environment conducive to macro-investment. There has also been emphasis on micro-business growth through loans and empowerment of communities to take up industrial production to their scale. And for the first time in the history of this country, Malawi has joined the club of uranium mining nations in the world. Two weeks ago, Bingu commissioned a uranium mine in the North. The mine is expected to add at least 10 percent to the country's GDP and could be a competitor to Malawi's main foreign exchange earner tobacco whose fortunes have been on the decline for several years running. The IMF came to Malawi two weeks ago and said they were impressed with the way Malawi's economy is ticking. An IMF official said in 2009, Malawi's economy would grow by 6 percent beating the expected regional growth of 3 percent. Towards the end of last year, Malawi's economy was pitted by the Economic Intelligence Unit as the world's fastest growing economy.

Education infrastructure has been a feature of his government. So has been road infrastructure which has opened many rural areas, making travelling easier and enabling rural farmers to ferry their produce easily to better markets. Women are lesser being trampled upon now because of Bingu's empowerment of them. There has been notable improvement in health sector with more infrastructure and incentives for health personnel which has seen a significant reduction in flight of nurses to countries outside Malawi for greener pastures.

He has also cracked down on corruption. There are still cases of corruption going on but the situation has not been as rampant as it was during the time of Muluzi. There has also been relative security for the citizens over the years.

It is on account of the achievements of his government that an opinion poll by one SADC regional body put Bingu way ahead of the rest. His margin of victory in the elections would not be filled even by those of UDF and MCP combined, according to the results by the body, Afro-Barometer.

Pitfalls

It is generally agreed that Bingu has been weak on rule of law. He has at times even questioned and rejected some of the decisions made by the courts, decisions that have not favoured his government. Some fear that given a majority in parliament, Bingu could step over the line and become repressive.

He is not the sort who likes compromises. In all the four previous budget session of parliament, his government side, a minority, has struggled to have the opposition approve the national budget. Not at one time did Bingu move to strike a deal with the opposition for them to change their heart on the budget. Instead, he would lambaste them in mass rallies as being inconsiderate. To a reasonable person, his stance was good anyway, considering the fact that on many such occasions, opposition was just intent on giving Bingu's government a torrid time. And he has been receiving support from sections of the civil society in that regard. But the opposition has been using his toughness to discredit him.

In spite of his good policies and achievements, Bingu is not an eloquent speaker. His lack of verbal power in vernacular makes him unable to articulate his development agenda with such emotional, mass appeal. Some analysts describe this as his undoing because his rivals in the opposition are rabble rousers of sorts who can present even a senseless, vain point into an electoral weapon.

The coming together of MCP and UDF in an alliance against Bingu is a potential threat to his chances of retaining the presidency. He has dismissed the alliance, saying he will effectively deal with both on May 19.


John Tembo & Bakili Muluzi
Malawi Congress Party/United Democratic Front

Muluzi has given up on the presidential race after Malawi Electoral Commission blocked him on the ground that he ruled the country for the constitutional two five-year terms. In response, he has taken his party into an alliance with MCP. This is a formidable combination likely to unsettle Bingu. Muluzi has a large cult following from the South. Tembo has over the years been a cult-hero for the people in the Central region.

In fact, in the 2004 elections, Tembo just narrowly missed the presidency after acquiring a very large number of votes from the Central region where he comes from. His party went on to win the most seats in parliament. All MPs came from the region. Election is a game of numbers and going by this, combined voters behind Muluzi and those behind Tembo makes such a sum Bingu would not just wish away.

This is the major strength of the alliance so far.

The other strength is that both UDF and MCP have diehard supporters who follow their parties at all cost, whether with or without an agenda for the nation. This is the characteristic that Bingu's DPP may not have. The rabble rousers in the alliance are likely to work up the illiterate classes of people. This is the likely spot where Bingu could lose ground. He is technocratic in his leadership and is likely to score highly on educated and knowledgeable people. But these are fewer. And often, these classes of people do not go to vote.


Pitfalls

Some say the alliance is not a threat to Bingu after all because even if Muluzi and Tembo agree on terms or on how they are going to share the cabinet positions after the elections, MCP will not honour the agreements.

Some UDF supporters see this as a wasteful alliance because they believe that what has been done will not serve the interest of the party. The point is that UDF will go to the elections without a candidate of its own and this could be a step closer to its death. This prospect is attributed to Muluzi greed to hold on to the reigns of the party even long before it was clear that he would be barred from standing. The followers argue that Muluzi should have then groomed somebody else to take over from him.

This measures the tough time that UDF has, in part to convince some sections of UDF supporters to vote for Tembo. Tembo is generally associated with the darkness of Malawi's political past. For example, UDF has had an unflinching support from Mangochi, one of districts with the largest number of voters in the country. This is one of the areas Tembo would need so he could shore up his electoral support. Yet this is the district that heavily dislikes Tembo because of this: during the rule of the MCP, Henry Masauko Chipembere was treated by the government then as one of the rebels. When he fled to US, MCP herded everyone in Chipemebere's Moto village to prison for the sins of their son. This has been a very huge scar on MCP's political identity in the district. The alliance must convert such people across the country into voting for Tembo.


It is argued further that the alliance is up against a government that has fulfilled its campaign manifestos. The alliance does not seem to have an alternative to offer. High on the agenda is to just to remove Bingu, an objective coming out of power greed. This is explained further by the fact that the parties are coming together with no unified manifestos.


Their reliance on regional support is premised in the outcomes of the previous elections where people have voted for a candidate from their region. But analysts have cautioned on working on such mathematics as it might not be the case this time. DPP does not have a stronghold region. It is observed that it has a considerable presence in all the regions of the country, so it would win because of those pockets of support.

Perhaps, this comment by a voter in one of the dailies could sum up the spirit of the time.

"Any party would be threatened [by the alliance]. When a bunch of time wasters form an alliance, the strong one is shaken but not thrown off balance. It is a threat but not enough to overthrow Bingu. Even UDF and MCP know that Bingu is a strong guy. Imagine they have had to from an alliance."

http://eltasmw.blogspot.com/2009/04/detailed-analysis-of-leading-parties.html