Malawi cleans errors from voter list

Malawi cleans errors from voter list

Blantyre - Malawi's elections authority said on Thursday it is cleaning up its voters roll less than three weeks before national elections, after missing names and other incorrect data were discovered.

"The electoral commission is in the process of rectifying errors and making amendments from the voters' roll," Anastazia Msosa, who chairs the commission, said.

"There was incorrect data, missing and misplaced names, missing photos and incorrect information," Msosa added.

Msosa, a judge of the supreme court of appeal, said the anomalies were discovered during a verification exercise launched last week throughout the country.

About 5,8 million people are registered for the presidential and parliamentary poll on May 19.

Msosa said she was hoping the corrections would be completed by next week "to allow for voting to take place on May 19."

Similar problems surfaced in the 2004 elections.

The front runners in the presidential race are incumbent Bingu wa Mutharika and veteran opposition leader John Tembo of the Malawi Congress Party.

Former president Bakili Muluzi, who ruled the impoverished southern African nation from 1994 to 2004 and was seeking a third term, was axed from the race because he had already hit his two-terms limit.

Over 1,000 candidates, half of them independents, are vying for 193 parliamentary seats.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20090430191030152C820035

Pentecostal Churches holds Malawi's Presidential Prayer Breakfast meeting

The Pentecostal Revival Ministries International (PRC) in collaboration with church leaders from the Assemblies of God, Church of Central Africa Presbyterian (CCAP), the Anglican Church, Calvary Family Church (CFC) and other Pentecostal Churches has organized a Presidential Prayer Breakfast (PPB) on May 8 at Sanjika Palace in Blantyre to pray for democratic and peaceful elections.

President Bingu wa Mutharika and the rest of the presidential candidates and their running mates, parliamentary candidates and all political parties, donors, diplomatic community and civil society organisations among others are expected to attend the prayers.

A press statement from the PRC signed by its moderator Apostle Dr. Madalitso says guest speaker will be Dr John Munyonyi from Uganda.

Under the theme "Prayer for Democratic Peaceful 2009 General Elections", the prayers underscore the need for God's intervention during and after the 2009 General Elections.

"PRC recognizes and appreciates the tremendous efforts being demonstrated by various bodies in trying to provide direction to the political leadership and the general public to nurture our new democracy. However, PRC believes that human effort alone is incomplete for Malawi to achieve meaningful development and democracy," reads the statement.

It adds that as a God fearing nation, Malawi needs the supernatural intervention of God, through prayer to achieve a united, peaceful and democratic Malawi.

"PRC believes that such an initiative has a trickle down effect to the masses if leaders are targeted first," it says.

The PPB meetings date back to 1999 and are held a few days prior to each General Election with the aim of creating a peaceful political atmosphere conducive to free, accessible and fair elections.

During the PPB, the presidential candidates from different political parties, religious, political leaders and other leader from the country  humble themselves and seek the intervention of God and demonstrate their willingness to eat from the common table during and after the prayers.



AEP/Deogratias Mmana

Malawi Elections : School suspends Classes due to DPP meeting

Classes were suspended in almost all schools in Blantyre City following a meeting ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had with female civil service and party women according to Daily Times.

A visit by The Daily Times crew to some city schools discovered that most pupils were sent back because most female teachers were invited to the DPP meeting held at Comesa Hall in Blantyre.

A head teacher at one of the schools, who pleaded for anonymity, said he received a phone call from South West Education Division, instructing him to release all female teachers for the DPP meeting.

"I have more than 60 female teachers and I have released all of them. However, I was not told why they wanted the teachers," he said.

According to the head teacher, most of the teachers at his school were female hence the suspension of classes.

But a pupil at another school said "we are not learning akuti ana onse akazi a Mose apita ku Comesa".

A visit to Comesa Hall found that hundreds of women had filled the hall to capacity, some were outside, others at Kamuzu Upper Stadium dressed in party colours and civil service cloth.

Some women outside the hall said their party leaders told them to support all women in the forthcoming general elections.

"We were told that we should vote for women regardless of their political affiliations," said one of the women who refused to be named.

DPP spokesperson Hetherwick Ntaba said he was aware of the meeting in Blantyre but referred this reporter to the National Director of Women Patricia Kaliati who could not be reached on her mobile number on several attempts.

On the suspension of classes, Ministry of Education spokesperson Lindiwe Chide was ignorant of the matter.

The country's fourth general elections are just 20 days away.

 

Malawi Electoral Commission sets May 4 deadline

Chairperson for the Malawi's Electoral Commission Justice Anastasia Msosa said on Wednesday that the voters roll verification exercise which has taken almost a month now is expected to finish on May 4.

 

But opposition parties expressed doubt if the electoral commission will be able to hold polls on May 19 because of the overwhelming work it has to do with the verification exercise of the voters' roll.

 

Speaking at a news conference at the electoral body's offices in the commercial city of Blantyre at the end of a consultative meeting with political parties and donors, Msosa said after May 4, the corrected voters' register will be sent out to polling centres for voters to verify their information details.

 

"The verification of the corrected voters' register will take place for four days. That is what political parties and the Electoral Commission have agreed in today's meeting," Msosa said.

 

The chairperson said possibilities of extending the date for polling would be known on May 4 at another meeting with political parties to review progress of the verification exercise and the general preparations of the elections.

 

"Extension will be discussed on May 4. We are not thinking of extension as of now," she said. But chances are high that the polling day will be extended because the verification exercise is unlikely to finish on May 4.

 

Meanwhile, the electoral body has hired 1 000 clerks for the voters roll verification exercise. The commission is yet to pay police officers who were also hired to provide security at the beginning of the exercise.

 

Chief Elections Officer David Bandawe said at the news conference "arrangements are made to pay the police officers very shortly". He failed to explain what he meant by "very shortly".

AEP

Interdominational prayers for free and fair elections in Malawi

Liwonde Pastors Fraternity over the weekend organized interdominational prayers for free and fair elections at Liwonde Zambezi Evangelical Church where five out of thirty four candidates turned up.Liwonde Pastors Fraternity Chairperson Pastor Yotam Tembo said the prayers were held to ask divine intervention in the May 19^th parliamentary and presidential elections.

 

He however said the special prayers organizing committee invited all the 34 parliamentary candidates in Machinga.

 

The United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate for Machinga North East Atupele Muluzi gave an apology to say he would not make it due to other engagements, Tembo said adding, "The rest did not give apology."

 

Present at the interdominational special prayers were UDF candidate for Machinga Likwenu, Mwalone Jangiya, independent candidates for Machinga Likwenu Davie Chitedze, Borgstein Chidumu, Mary Mthepeya and Malawi Congress Party candidate for Machinga East, Ruth Muhiyo. 

 

During the prayers several pastors for non violence campaign in the district, informed decision by the voters in choosing right candidates, non violence cerebration after poll results and a "mature" parliament thereafter.

 

Machinga has seven constituencies with six women and 28 men competing for the parliamentary seat.

 

Sixteen candidates are representing their parties thus seven for Democratic Progressive Party, seven for UDF and two for MCP.

 

Liwonde Town Assembly Chief Executive Titus Muluwaza commended the Pastors Fraternity for the prayers thereby expressing hope prayers will lead to political tolerance plus free and fair elections.

 

Police in Machinga recorded six politically related chaos between March and April this year, according to Machinga police Public Relations Officer Sergeant Joseph Sauka.

 

Sauka said property damage and assaults were also recorded during the chaos in the district.

 

He said the six political related chaos occurred in the course of political campaigning in Machinga East, Central and Central East among campaigning political parties.

 

DPP, UDF, MCP have their candidates campaigning in the district apart from many independent candidates.

MANA

50-50 gender campaign monitoring, evaluation starts in two weeks’ time

The Ministry of Women and Child Development, in collaboration with Civil Society Organizations that were taking part in a project aimed
at ensuring that, at least, half of parliamentary sits after the May 19, 2009 elections are amassed by women (50-50 campaign), have
announced that monitoring and evaluation (M and e) of the campaign process commences in two weeks' time.
The campaign was initiated following perceived continued suppression on Malawian women, especially leadership positions that could
influence over-all national development programmes. The Malawian woman is said to be disadvantaged by traditional, cultural stereotyping,
poverty and high levels of illiteracy, challenges that have cast women to the far end of most national processes despite their constituting
over half of the country's population (52 per cent).
Linley Kamtengeni, the Ministry's expert on Women, Girls, HIV and AIDS, said in an exclusive interview in Blantyre M and E was crucial
to successful implementation of future women empowerment projects- a requisite process if Malawi was to meet Southern African Development
Community and other international protocols on gender and female empowerment.
She defended the idea to sponsor only women when gender encompassed both the sexes (male and female), saying while both men and women
faced a fair share of challenges, it were the women who were more disadvantaged hence the campaign to help them attain positions of
influence in society.
"We can say so far, so good. We have seen most women coming out of their cocoons to challenge men for political positions, but we can not
fairly say how deep we have gone in up-rooting misconceptions about women without monitoring and evaluation. That is why we are starting
the process in two weeks' time," said Kamtengeni.
The Non-Governmental Organizations Gender Support Network (NGO-GCN), a network of Malawian civil society organizations that was coordinating
the campaign, confirmed the development. NGO-GCN's Coordinator, Eunice Chamgomo, said the process, to start in two weeks time, would help
implementers of the 50-50 campaign to plan forward because campaigning for women empowerment was an on-going process.
Chamgomo said, while the process could not be of immediate benefits to women contesting in the May 19, 2009 parliamentary and presidential
elections (due to the time factor to the polls), it could help Malawians gauge where they could have done better and where they did
better.
"This is a very importance process for us. We are committed to women empowerment, especially in electoral processes, that we are leaving no
stone unturned. We want to help our women to stand up for their rights and be counted," said Chamgomo.

AEP/Richard Chirombo

Malawian Electoral body urges no panic over electoral calendar

The Electoral Commission (EC) has dispelled fears Malawi could miss out on the May 19, 2009 Parliamentary and Presidential elections date in the wake of delays to finish the Voters' Roll verification process in good time.
The Voters' Roll verification process is yet to be finalized, a development that has prompted the EC to cast its net wide in search of
personnel, culminating into advertisement messages for prospective workers to come forth. It is intimated that the process could take
five days, with prospects for extension.
EC Spokesperson, Fegus Lipenga, said the development should not scare voters, as everything was still under control.
"Nothing has changed, in terms of the dates for the elections. In fact, that is what we are working towards in all our efforts and
preparation. We strongly believe that we will finish the verification process in good time," said Lipenga.
Lipenga said everything was going according to plan, though developments enveloping the issue of voters' verification could not
have been foreseen. All the same, there was no need to press the panic baton, he said.
Some political parties have expressed concern over delays to finish off with the verification process, saying that could affect timing of
the elections.

AEP/Richard Chirombo

London Uni to hold conference on Malawi elections

The Royal African Society and London School of Economic (LSE) have organised a conference on Malawi elections to be held Wednesday 6 May at LSE from 18:00.

According to organisers, the debate dubbed "Malawi at the crossroads: The last great battle of the Kamuzu era giants?" will be held in Room H102, Connaught House, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE.

Speakers will include LSE media and communications lecture, Dr Linje Manyozo, Bernabé Sánchez from World Banda and  Chifundo Kachale from School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London (School of Law).

Malawi goes to the polls on May 19th in a crucial election that will either return current president, Bingu wa Mutharika, or replace him with veteran John Tembo, once the political henchman of Ngwazi Hastings Kamuzu Banda.

The conference will debate that if Tembo wins, will Mutharika secure a parliamentary majority? And if Tembo wins will his coalition, which includes former president Bakili Muluzi, hold together?

Organizers say the politics "are bitter and highly personal" but there is also a real choice for voters.

"Is the election about the economy where Mutharika can claim some success, or is it about the political system where the opposition champions democratic process and the constitution?" the speakers will address the issues in their talk.

nyasa times

The Visually impaired asks the Electoral body to vote alone

Malawi Union for the Blind (MUB) has asked Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) to find ways on how the visually impaired could vote in the coming General Elections  without any assistance. Speaking in an interview MUB Education Officer and Chairperson for Youth, Latim Matenje said the only problem with the blind is not able to see but they can do more if given an equal opportunity. Matenje said as an organization, they believe that visually impaired people have the right to take part in everything that is happening in the country. He cited things like farming, doing business, taking loans, education and many more others. Matenje said as a blind person, himself he does not like to be helped with governing or any organization instead  he prefer to work hand in hand with government and other organization because they are capable. He said, the disabled  don't want anyone to vote for them because sometimes they are cheated. Frank Tchemula for Zomba Nice said his office is ready to work with MUB by engaging them in different endeavours like in district activities, development activities, and in decision making processes. Responding on how visually impaired people are going to vote in the forthcoming elections.  MEC Spokesperson Fegus Lipenga said they are discussing the matter with Federation of Disability Organisation of Malawi (Fedoma). AEP

Malawi's 2009 Elections Online

In December 2007, I wrote an article titled "Malawi's 2009 battle on the Internet". I received several mixed reactions. Some people even said that I was merely day dreaming. But almost a year and a half later and about three weeks to May 19, Malawi's politicians have penetrated the internet as can be evidenced through the rest of this story.

(A note to the reader: you can click on the links and be taken to the sites hyperlinked. Note also that the article has been repackaged with some sections from my earlier article on the same).

Political Parties and Candidates 

 

The Democratic Progressive Party

With its presidential candidate Dr Bingu wa Mutharika, it has a website http://dppmw.org/ The party also runs a Facebook account while Mutharika himself has a blog in his name. Recently there are new blogs, some conspicuously partisan. But I welcome the development. If it is true, President Mutharika too should be welcome to the blogosphere as I saw a blog in his name. Politicians should be encouraged to these opportunities.

New Rainbow Coalition (NARC)

Its presidential candidate Loveness Gondwe stated in a radio interview that her party has a website, www.narcparty.com Additionally Malawi Politics has ably captured her profile.

United Democratic Front (UDF)

With no presidential candidate as to date, the UDF as a party does not have own website. However its national chairman who is Malawi's former president Bakili Muluzi runs one is his own name in party colours. Its presence online faces attacks from enemies like the blog http://antimuluzi.blogspot.com/ which openly is against his candidature. Muluzi was also earlier on reported to have created a Facebook account.

Independent Presidential Candidate

A new comer to the political scene in Malawi, James Nyondo also has a personal website. It appears that he is heavily utilizing the site attracting the attention of his supporters and those wishing to know more about him.

Malawi Congress Party (MCP)

Malawi's oldest party also decided to cyber on http://www.malawicongressparty.org/ while probably sadly maintaining an earlier site

http://www.geocities.com/mcpmalawi/. While what is online seems to leave out some items that the party actually touts in its rallies, the new website seems to be enjoying a good number of visits due to the need for knowledge about the party that claims to have changed. Some commentators (through the print) have also described the website as more beautiful than any other on the race.

Other parties like Peoples Transformation Party (Petra) with Kamuzu Chibambo, Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) and Republican Party of Stanley Masauli do not have own websites so far.

Then one sees selected parliamentary candidates like Chikondi Nkhoma in Lilongwe are turning to the website for passing on their manifesto to the electorate. The young candidate is also on Facebook. Dr Cornelius Mwalwanda of Karonga had a running website (in DPP colours) but it appears he shut it down following losses at primary elections.

News portals like Nyasa Times have been described by some as online tools meant to serve the interests of one political party over others. Yet it also a fact that the portal is probably the most updated and followed due its coverage of elections in Malawi.

A recently launched African Elections Project with focus on Malawi should be a welcome idea as now for the first time Malawians and the world over will and can follow elections on a dedicated elections portal for Malawi. This project is unique in the sense that it will also Malawians send text messages to a dedicated number and report on the elections.

Internet Civic Education and Participation

Various authors have underscored that media visibility is key resource for political survival and success in a mediated public sphere prevalent today. What most modern day politicians have realized is that the traditional terrestrial radio and hard newspapers are not the only ones they can use if they are to sell themselves and the nation. The Internet is here to strengthen their horizontal and vertical communication with them and the electorates.

As elections come closer, it can be anticipated that more and more Malawians will be keen to know how to choose the right candidates for Parliament and State house. It is normal these days to see that a good deal of civic education is taking place on the Internet.

Apart from voices within Malawi, the Diaspora community needs to be included. Candidates are under scrutiny by those within and away from Malawi and every move within the public sphere is likely to be discussed. If politicians exclude themselves from these opportunities, they might be losing out on an important electorate for the democratic Malawi.

Sometime ago, I saw a poll on Nyasa Times on whether Malawians in the Diaspora should be allowed to vote or not. As one might guess, majority (84 percent) said yes. People long to participate even though they have been geographically isolated. But with Internet, such information and civic boundaries have been eliminated. Should one expect the Malawi Electoral Commission to consider such a poll?

While Internet penetration in Malawi is still under one percent of the population, this development seems to appeal to a good number of Malawians within and in the Diaspora as they are now able to read and learn more about their candidates.

This is one way of bringing the democracy of the Internet to politics and the reverse also applies. While this might sound too advanced, it will be interesting to see how our politicians might slowly pick up the ideas towards 2009 and 2014.

Wining the 2009 battle will partly be dependent on many factors including equipping and utilising the Malawian information highway we are living in today.

Analysts question Malawi's Electoral Commission capacity

Political analysts have questioned the capacity of Malawi's Electoral Commission to manage elections following its failure to sort out problems emanating from the voters' roll in time.

The Electoral Commission opened a voters' roll verification exercise early May to enable registered voters verify their personal details and make coorections before the polling day.

In many centres, it was found that some names were missing, in others pictures followed wrong names while in others too numbers of registered voters reduced.

A political analyst Dr. Augustine Magolowondo said the challenges the electoral body is facing are not different from those of previous elections.

"The commission had similar problems in the past up to the extent of postponing elections. The challenge is that in Malawi, elections are taken as an event that takes place after five years," said Dr. Magolowondo.

Magolowondo said the verifying exercise could have taken place seven to eight months ago.

Another political analyst, a lecturer at the University of Malawi Blessings Chinsinga blamed the electoral body for poor planning.

"The Electoral Commission has failed to learn from the previous elections. The exercise could have been through by now," said Chinsinga.

Spokesperson for the Malawi's Electoral Commission Fegus Lipenga said the exercise has only managed to verify about half of the 5.9 million  registered voters, just 21 days to polling day.

The electoral body hired 550 teachers who have since been discharged of their duty because schools have opened on Monday.

The electoral body has hired  1 000 clerks to finish the job.

Lipenga said the commission expects to finish the exercise by May 3, which will be 15 days to voting.


Compiled by Deogratias Mmana/AEP

Malawi Ex-President Muluzi Gives Up Comeback Bid, Backs Another Candidate

Former Malawi President Bakili Muluzi is expected officially to give up his comeback bid for the presidency after deciding to throw his support behind another opposition leader in the May 19 general election. Muluzi, who was recently barred by the electoral commission from running in future campaigns, said he would be supporting the Malawi Congress Party's presidential candidate John Tembo in the election. The former president continues to insist he is not disqualified to stand for elections, even though the constitution bars him from coming back to power after serving two consecutive terms in office from 1994 to 2004. 

Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) spokesman Humphrey Mvula told VOA that the new alliance will ensure victory for the opposition in the general election. 

"What you've heard as information is correct that Dr. Bakili Muluzi and the United Democratic Front (UDF) will not be fielding a presidential candidate, but will be supporting the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) presidential candidate. The United Democratic Front and the Malawi Congress Party have entered into a coalition agreement to fight the election on 19 May as one unit. And in that context, two developments arise. Dr. Muluzi will not stand. The reason being, the (electoral) commission uncharacteristically decided to bar Dr. Muluzi," Mvula said.

The general election was expected to be hotly contested between incumbent President Mutharika and former President Muluzi until the electoral commission disbarred the former leader from participation, citing Muluzi's two consecutive terms as Malawi's leader from 1994 to 2004. But the former president maintains that he is not constitutionally barred to represent the UDF in the election, and has filed a case in court challenging the decision of the electoral commission to bar him from  this and future elections.  Humphrey Mvula says the former president is launching a legal challenge to the electoral body's decision to bar him from participating in the May 19 election and future elections.

"We've taken the matter to court, but the matter has been going at a snail's pace. And it was also thought as a party that it would be unfair that a party would be disenfranchised in its entirety and not be able to vote for a presidential candidate, bearing in mind that this is a party that won the previous three elections including the one in 2004," he said.

Mvula said the unity of purpose of the two opposition parties is formidable enough to win the upcoming general election handsomely.

"The next characteristic development is the fact that the UDF and the MCP are going to go into what one can describe as a coalition government, where we are pulling all our support towards Honorable John Tembo," Mvula said.

He sharply denied that the two opposing ideologies would cause potential friction in the coalition.

"No, I think that will serve the people of Malawi best. We are a democratic party, and we are in a democratic multiparty dispensation, and Malawians chose popular democracy. MDC and UDF have minor differences ideologically probably one would be looking at MCP more of a conservative one the other side whereas we are social liberal democrats," he said.

Mvula said the coalition would have the panacea to resolve the numerous challenges the ordinary Malawian faces.

"The two married together would bring out possibly the best solutions in Malawi for the people of Malawi in that we believe that every development must have a human face," Mvula said.

He said the former president should not be blamed for the decision of the electoral body to disbar him from this and future elections, adding that the constitution does not support the electoral commission's assertion.

"My take is with due respect to the fact that the matter is in court. Dr. Muluzi was not his own candidate. He was a candidate identified and elected and subsequently voted into the presidential candidacy by the faithful of UDF drawn across the country. The UDF was very clear and still remains clear until proven otherwise that the decision to field Dr. Muluzi had not run contrary to the aspirations of the constitution. We still contend, and we still do so fervently and passionately, we don't see a law that actually bars the former president from bouncing back into power," he said.                 

Some political analysts say the former president's decision to throw his weight behind opposition leader John Tembo could pose a significant challenge to incumbent President Bingu Wa Mutharika. Based on a controversial poll ahead of the election, President Mutharika is expected to win the contest with at least 60 percent of the vote. But the opposition dismissed the poll as fraught with errors and skewed in favor of President Mutharika.

http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2009-04-27-voa2.cfm

Synod wants vote results posting at each polling station

Nkhoma Synod of the CCAP church is calling on the body mandated to conduct elections in Malawi, the Electoral Commission to ensure that May 19 presidential and parliamentary should have voting results counted and posted at each polling station after polling.

The church said in a pastoral message that all stakeholders and interested parties should have access to the results which will be counted and confirmed by all legible monitors.

"Let us pray that voting, counting and announcing of election results
should be done in all fairness. It will be ideal if results be posted for public consumption at every polling station before they are forwarded to the Returning Officers at the District Commissioner's office," said the church in statement.

The CCAP church, the second largest Christian denomination in the country called on the Electoral Commission to announce the final results immediately after finishing tallying the figures.

"For a wide verification of results, all media houses should be allowed to take part in broadcasting the results," the church appealed.

EC has since confirmed that the national voter nerve centre will be at Chichiri International Conference Centre also known as Comesa Hall.

As countdown to the polls continue, fears of vote rigging have been registered mainly by opposition parties MCP and UDF who have teamed up to field join presidential candidate John Tembo to face incumbent Bingu wa Mutharika.

Political commentators have described the MCP-UDF alliance as formidable to win the May presidential race.

"The Electoral Commission carries a heavy burden to ensure that the entire electoral process is handled smoothly.  The process includes registration of voters, political campaign, activities on the polling day, counting and announcing of election results. The careful handling of these will lead to free and fair elections," reads the message issued by Synod General secretary Rev Dr Davidson Chifungo, Synod Moderator Rev C.E.J Msangaambe and Senior Clerk Rev S.S Sande Mwale.

The church pointed out that itt is unfortunate that according to revelations made by the verification exercise, some registered names are missing on the voters' roll national wide.

Nevertheless, Nkhoma Synod expressed the hope that all registered and legible members will vote regardless of the shortcomings.

"Let us pray that the Electoral commission in Malawi should completely be independent. This will help them handle free and fair elections."

The church also condement campaign hate-messages on public media houses and asked national broadcaster MBC and Television Malawi to give equal access to all political parties and presidential candidates unlike the present status where only thr ruling party is dominating.

The Nkhoma Synod said  does not condone the use of provocative language and unbalanced coverage of political campaigns in any media house in Malawi.

It condemened radio and television propaganda and hate-capaign  programs such Makiyolobasi, Mizwanya, Boiling Pot, Kalibu saying they do not just dehumanise others but also promote immoral upbringing of young Malawians.

" Our children will grow thinking that it is normal to disrespect one another in politics," faith leaders said.

The pastoral statement is  titled "Choosing the right leader".
http://www.nyasatimes.com/national/3323.html

Malawi 19 May elections: An informed statistical prediction

Since the advent of multiparty democracy, we have noted the extent to which a candidate's home and to a lesser extent religion play a role in determining whether the candidate wins big or less. Of course the aforementioned factors do not predict the outcomes of elections with perfection but a study of 100 percent of the elections we have had so far confirms that these proxies are non-ignorable. The referendum race at the turn of the 1990s was probably the only exception when individuals voted for or against multiparty politics based on what they believed democracy had in store for them.  

However, an examination of data for the 1994 presidential and parliamentary elections does reveal that people had been quickly conditioned to vote based on seemingly less objective but unfortunately real and often important grounds. Most of these events are quite obvious and this posting will not waste your precious time narrating the palpable, rather effort is made to flag some connections between locations, altars and votes and the likelihood of such realities to drive this year's results. 

In 1994 people voted along regional lines generally and obviously given that we had three major parties (AFORD in the North, mighty MCP at the Centre and UDF in the south) and the party from the largest region, UDF, had to win. Regional affiliation had helped deliver the presidency to Dr Muluzi and multiparty politics set in together with politics of akwithu.

Indeed, AFORD had a majority of its MPs from the North; MCP dominated the centre while Muluzi dominated the south though we had a few exceptions to the rule in the central region where yellow flags flew in some areas. Whether the elections of 1999 were a real win for Muluzi or not (and I am not here to debate that), it seems that people thought of righting the wrongs of the 1994 elections such that the centre became increasingly Tambala wa kunda, the south continued to yellow while the North AFORDed even further. 

This posting spends more time on the more recent 2004 elections which showed the same pattern (notice that the fact that the North voted for Chakuwamba does not break the pattern because among all the strong parties that contested that year, it was only Gwanda's that had many Northern gurus and hence promissory to the North). The outcome of that election saw JZU coming victorious with the centre as the centre of his strength, Gwanda took the north and some parts of the south while the less known Bingu ridding on the shoulders of Dr Muluzi, took the Yao belt and scored well in Lomwe dominated southern districts. 

I believe that the past is very instrumental in predicting the future and that the past can be made more useful if data is analysed with rigor and insight. I have done this with considerable care based on the data files detailing the results of the 2004 elections circulating on Malawitalk, Malawiana and Freenyasanet forums. 

The table below shows snippets of the partial analysis of the data. It presents how the candidates fared. The results are presented in ascending order i.e. the candidates strongholds are presented first to aid interpretation. The figures shown are proportions of the vote going to the candidate in that district. 

DISTRICT	Chakuamba	DISTRICT	Mutharika	DISTRICT	Mpinganjira	DISTRICT	Malewezi	DISTRICT	J.Z.U. Tembo
Karonga	0.79	Machinga	0.88	Mulanje	0.57	Mwanza	0.36	Dowa	0.80
NkhataBay	0.77	Mangochi	0.84	Phalombe	0.37	Ntchisi	0.32	Dedza	0.75
Mzimba	0.75	Balaka	0.74	Likoma	0.20	Likoma	0.21	Lilongwe	0.73
Nsanje	0.73	Thyolo	0.58	Chiradzulu	0.18	NkhataBay	0.14	Mchinji	0.67
Rumphi	0.66	Chiradzulu	0.55	Thyolo	0.16	Ntcheu	0.03	Kasungu	0.63
Chitipa	0.60	Mulanje	0.51	Mwanza	0.16	Balaka	0.02	Salima	0.49
Chikwawa	0.58	Phalombe	0.50	Neno	0.15	Mangochi	0.02	Ntchisi	0.47
Blantyre	0.48	Ntcheu	0.49	Blantyre	0.11	Chiradzulu	0.02	Nkhotakot	0.36
Likoma	0.41	Nkhotakot	0.42	Balaka	0.11	Machinga	0.02	Ntcheu	0.26
Neno	0.39	Salima	0.38	Chitipa	0.11	Neno	0.02	Mzimba	0.05
Mwanza	0.36	Blantyre	0.38	Ntcheu	0.09	Mulanje	0.02	Neno	0.04
Thyolo	0.18	Neno	0.38	Zomba	0.09	Salima	0.02	Mangochi	0.03
Chiradzulu	0.18	Zomba	0.36	Machinga	0.08	Thyolo	0.02	Chitipa	0.03
Kasungu	0.14	Rumphi	0.27	Mangochi	0.06	Zomba	0.02	Balaka	0.03
Zomba	0.14	Nsanje	0.25	Kasungu	0.04	Phalombe	0.02	Blantyre	0.03
Nkhotakot	0.13	Mchinji	0.24	Nkhotakot	0.04	Nkhotakota	0.02	Chiradzulu	0.03
Lilongwe	0.11	Chitipa	0.24	NkhataBay	0.03	Chitipa	0.01	Mwanza	0.02
Balaka	0.11	Chikwawa	0.21	Salima	0.03	Blantyre	0.01	Machinga	0.02
Ntcheu	0.09	Dedza	0.20	Lilongwe	0.03	Dedza	0.01	Rumphi	0.02
Mangochi	0.06	Lilongwe	0.20	Mzimba	0.03	Lilongwe	0.01	Karonga	0.02
Machinga	0.06	Kasungu	0.17	Karonga	0.03	Kasungu	0.01	Mulanje	0.01
Mulanje	0.05	Likoma	0.17	Chikwawa	0.02	Mchinji	0.01	Zomba	0.01
Salima	0.04	Karonga	0.17	Mchinji	0.02	Dowa	0.01	Phalombe	0.01
Dowa	0.03	Mzimba	0.15	Rumphi	0.02	Mzimba	0.01	Thyolo	0.01
Mchinji	0.03	Dowa	0.15	Dedza	0.02	Karonga	0.01	Chikwawa	0.01
Ntchisi	0.02	Ntchisi	0.14	Dowa	0.01	Nsanje	0.01	Nsanje	0.01
Phalombe	0.02	Mwanza	0.07	Ntchisi	0.01	Chikwawa	0.01	Likoma	0.01
Dedza	0.02	NkhataBa	0.01	Nsanje	0.01	Rumphi	0.01	NkhataBay	0.01

 
 

Gwanda fared well in the North and in Sena areas of the South. BJ fared well in Lomwe areas of the South while Malewezi did well in Ntchisi his home town and the Nyau areas of the South. Bingu, riding on the back of Muluzi, did well in all Yao areas and in the Lomwe belt but was a mediocre in the North and centre.  

The election next month will not be any different because although some people could argue that Muluzi is not popular any more, his people of the Yao belt will follow him. Also notice that Muluzi and JZU fared very poorly in the North, but together they still had some small numbers worth counting. Those are unchangeable and reliable figures because anyone who voted for them in 2004 was likely someone who genuinely wanted them to rule. So a proxy of the Alliance vote from the North is found simply by {summing up Muluzi's, JZUs, Mpinganjiras and Malaeweze votes in the north}. We cannot use Gwandas because whoever voted for Gwanda did so because of the nature of his party at the time. His party was similar to today's DPP and hence most of them will be DPP. 

When we go to the south however, Gwanda's votes in his home town count but not in the other areas considering other issues which are not the purpose of this article. Similarly, all the votes from Yao land that went to Bingu in 2004 will be for the alliance but Bingu will score more in the Lomwe belt though his scores will be checked by his tribesman BJ. I predict that Bingu will get 52 % from the Lomwe belt while Mpinganjira will collect the rest for the alliance. I have given Blantyre to Bingu because I want the analysis to be very parsimonious and conservative so that my predictions are robust even if we allow for some rigging by the incumbent.  

In  case you did not know, the North accounts for about 16 % of the total vote; the Yaowland even including Zomba, plus Nsanje, and Mulanje (leaving the rest including the controversial Blantyre for DPP)  accounts for 22 % of the total vote; the rest of the southern region accounts for  circa 21 % of the total vote . The centre however accounts for 42 % of the total vote which should not be surprising. 

My calculations do show that though the aggregate regional voting power correlates well with actual voting patterns, it is not perfect. In fact if this was to be taken as a predictor, Bingu would lose slightly more than he actually loses under the more parsimonious scenario given below. A more precise predictor of voting patterns is found by making use of previous actual voting patterns to get proportions that can be used to simulate future voting. If this is done, the predictors fare well in forecasting previous election results. With this in mind, the predictors are used to predict the 19 May elections and the results show the following: 
 

•  
  •  
    •  

      	Jzu	Bingu
      North	0.040	0.114
      Centre	0.308	0.118
      Yao+MJ+Sena	0.168	0.040
      Lomweland	0.040	0.160
      Total	0.556	0.431

 

So if the assumptions espoused herein are realistic (and there is no reason why they shouldn't), unless the government rigs the elections, or something too Herculean  takes place between now and the elections day, JZU and the alliance will emerge victorious with at least 52% of the vote. Statistical methods show that this is true even at 1 percent level of significance, in other words the standard error associated with prediction is so small that it almost true. You can start betting, you have my word.  

This does not have anything to do with what I want, it is the reality. It will take a unifier to reverse this trend. To be a unifier one has to look beyond advice from greedy advisors whose advice often diverts from reality, is based on academic and not real facts, or is based on anger and the need to revenge or unfairly promote disgruntled minority standings etc.  Once a president forgets this tenet, he and his government are doomed and must Mugabelize or Kibakilize elections to the detriment of their legacies and to the nation. Prepare for a JZU presidency my friends and countrymen.   

*Chitsamba Undichangamire Mwachajesotafuna (Osaka, Japan) -- Computable Fluid Dynamics PhD student

http://www.nyasatimes.com/opinion/3325.html

Nothern Region to decide winner in Malawi Elections 2009 ?

Registered Voters:
Southern Region: 2,639,783
Central Region: 2,463,703
Northern Region (Minus Rumphi): 827,777

"For the North, it has always found itself on the wrong side of political tide because they fail to unite and understand that you can only claim what you own. They don't own the Government and I moved in to bring that balance they have rejected Aford," Chakufwa Tom Chihana told me in an interview soon after 2004 general elections.

Now its seems the battle for 2009 elections will be fought in the Northern Region, with its 700,000 votes probably delivering a verdict on who becomes a President come 19 May, and probably who forms a largest coalition in Parliament.

Northern Region has 31 seats and its voting influence extends to three more constituencies in Kasungu North, North North and North East while in Nkhotakota it managed to influence Nkhotakota North constituency, bringing in a total of 35 seats to bargain with.

Posterity has not favoured the region in terms of its decisions however, with some prominent leaders accusing each other of not supporting their own in preference to "other regions."

In 1994 and 1999 elections Aford retained almost all seats, but lost them all to different parties like PPM, UDF, its breakaway Mgode and RP. The main reason was that voters thought the late Chihana had sold them and the breaking of Aford led to the party to count its political losses far greater than all the three parties in 1994 national assembly.

Since independents, the Northern Region has dominated national politics and has weighed heavily on the wrong side of posterity starting with Orton Chirwa, Kanyama Chiume, Chisiza brothers Dunduzu and Yatuta and Aleke Banda.

They paid dearly for their decisions to question late Hastings Kamuzu Banda policies after inviting him to lead them against the colonial Government. As if it was not enough, Nkhatabay, the home of Chirwa, AKB and Chiume would be the venue to propose Kamuzu as a life president.

The decision to have a life presidency by the region did not help matters so as the same decision by Inkosi ya Makosi Mbelwa II to christen Kamuzu as Ngwazi on his arrival in 1958.

The region suffered segregation and the much touted quota system for the University was allegedly targeting the region. The icing on the cake was the MCP decision in the late 80's that teachers should be teaching in their homes of origin which saw hundreds of northerners being "expelled" back home.
"We thought lessons had been learnt, but a few years later greed gave way to the free lessons that kanthu nkhako," says Agnes NyaGondwe a long time MCP secretary for Rumphi.

True soon after elections late Chihana dragged Aford into an alliance with the MCP to fight the UDF administration. Late Chihana had just christened MCP as a party of "death and darkness" a year earlier. But he had answers to his decision "in politics you have no permanent enemies or friends."

A year later he was dining with Bakili Muluzi as second vice president, a party he had labelled "of rapists and murderers" and he lost Mzimba east constituency in a bye-election a protest vote which awarded the seat to MCP.

Chihana never learnt from history, he went to bed with MCP again in an electoral alliance before committing the third largest mistake which left all sensible Malawans dumbfounded- Aford was proposing an open term bill.

Khwauli Msiska was chosen for the task that will break Aford for good and true to the rumours, on Thursday, 4th July 2002 he stood in Parliament and said, "I have deliberately typed this statement that I am delivering in this Honourable House Empowering the Electorate. I have done so in recognition of our people's determination to courage, and capability to choose the right course for a democratic process."

The bill was to benefit Bakili Muluzi who in 2009 is still attempting a third term after rejection of it by the church, political and civic leaders who were terrorised for their position, which Msiska proudly stood for in 2002. It was a nail on Aford's coffin.

The region opened up to all parties and apart from the Presidency which went to Chakuamba any party such as Petra, UDF, NDA, PPM, RP and Mgode all claimed seats with Aford coming out a loser with six seats.

In 2005, Bingu wa Mutharika broke from the UDF and when he launched his DPP some mothers later, almost all members of Parliament except for MP for Likoma George Nga Mtafu, PPM MP's and Loveness Gondwe as Aford went to Government benches.

In simple mathematics out of 70 MP's claimed to be DPP, almost half came from the Northern Region. Harry Mkandawire and others went a step further to proclaim the region proudly at Jenda in Mzimba "the home of DPP."

Rumours gave birth to speculation, speculations to hope and hope to belief. The North was DPP and DPP's base was the Northern Region. Bingu picked his cabinet with Mzimba, Karonga and Nkhatabay getting a fair share of cabinet posts. Only Rumphi was left out and Chitipa had a deputy ministerial post added to it later on.


Just like with late Kamuzu Banda, Inkosi ya Makosi Mbelwa the fourth, would follow his forefather and crown Mutharika as the second Ngwazi in the republic. This was a perfect tonic to the region.

But the belief was that come to runningmate, DPP would pick Finance Minister Goodall Gondwe or at least Henry Chimunthu Banda, from Nkhotakota North. Bingu had others ideas, he picked a southerner Joyce Banda.

"It will be an interesting time for the region to see how they will react. All the parties have rejected the region or does not really see the value of the 700,000 votes it can bring," Yeremiah Chihana who addressed a group of shocked northerners at Area 18 filling station said on Friday soon after Bingu's announcement.

But the DPP, with Banda has added another hill to climb, the Central Region dominated by the MCP and whose President John Tembo talks of "looking after your kraal first before you go out."

It will be difficult for Mutharika, whose regional governor Bintony Kustaira formerly of MCP must convince the region that DPP belongs to them more than MCP which will take the region to presidency again.

Just like Tembo is not expected to gain much with Mpinganjira in the Lomwe belt, Bingu's decision leaves DPP leaders in the region with a hard task of converting the sceptics who already were angry with a few number of cabinet and principal secretaries who come from the region.

Muluzi only after clearing his eligibility tussle will he be able to assess the value of a Vice President from Nkhotakota, just as Cassim Chilumpha failed to move voters in Dedza, Lilongwe, Mchinji, Kasungu and Dowa to UDF in 2004 elections.

But all the three major candidates have essentially dumped the North.

Tembo and Mpinganjira pair will need to find a partner from the North who can convince the region that it will have stakes in their administration. However looking at the legacies of the two, it will be a tall order for them to find people at their rallies especially in districts like Rumphi, Nkhatabay, Karonga and Chitipa.

For Muluzi, the he cannot rely on his regional team which is essentially weak. Late Chakufwa Chihana pulled some crowds of his own. His rallies needs an additional heavyweight o convince the region that they have something to look forward to his comeback administration.


While Bingu might have thought of introducing political ideologies and issue based campaign, he has surely dashed the hope of many in the region, that selling the women empowerment line would not work this time, why should they vote for woman veep when they can get a president in the name of Loveness Gondwe.

Bingu who in all essence that the best advantage as the last presenter to correct the situation seems not to read the political terrain very well, that he has a huge task to convince the region that his decision was influenced on merit.

Already performance of Goodall Gondwe as Finance Minister, Henry Chimunthu Banda as a Minister and Leader of the House are far being contrasted with those of Joyce Banda both at the Ministry of Gender and Foreign Affairs.

Bingu's decision in short term will send Malawi back to 1994 elections where regionalism shall rise again with MCP entrenching its hold on the centre as DPP will be difficult to sell.

DPP's strongest point was that it was formed by all regions and everybody owned it since it came late on the political scene, now it belongs to a particular region sidelining the North and the Centre.

While Eastern Region, including Zomba will definitely return to UDF, Bingu can be assured of Thyolo, Blantyre city, Mulanje, Mwanza, Phalombe and parts of the Lower shire.

Chiradzulo and Blantyre rural will split between the parties while New Republican Party should do well in Nsanje, though the DPP and MCP might claim some seats.

The North is where the election will be decided, now that none of the major parties and presidential contenders has running mates from the region, they will need to campaign hard to get the regions vote.

Otherwise this might be the time Aford or Petra might rise to dominate the region should voters decide that they need to form own block and bargain as a region than as part of any other party.

The difference between State House and Voters now singly lies in what could be the famous "biblical rejected stone."

http://munthalikondwani.blogspot.com/2009/02/nothern-region-to-decide-winner.html

A Detailed analysis of the Leading Parties and their chances in Malawi Elections 2009

Bingu wa Mutharika & Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

Analysts agree that there has not been any time since Malawi turned a multiparty democracy in 1993 that Malawians have had reason to be hopeful of a better future than during the time Bingu has been at the helm of government.

In comparison with Muluzi who ruled the country between 1994 and 2004, Bingu has achieved considerably in his first five year term in various key sectors. Malawi has not begged for food for the past five years, In fact, it has been able to donate food to other countries in Africa. The economy has been stable making the environment conducive to macro-investment. There has also been emphasis on micro-business growth through loans and empowerment of communities to take up industrial production to their scale. And for the first time in the history of this country, Malawi has joined the club of uranium mining nations in the world. Two weeks ago, Bingu commissioned a uranium mine in the North. The mine is expected to add at least 10 percent to the country's GDP and could be a competitor to Malawi's main foreign exchange earner tobacco whose fortunes have been on the decline for several years running. The IMF came to Malawi two weeks ago and said they were impressed with the way Malawi's economy is ticking. An IMF official said in 2009, Malawi's economy would grow by 6 percent beating the expected regional growth of 3 percent. Towards the end of last year, Malawi's economy was pitted by the Economic Intelligence Unit as the world's fastest growing economy.

Education infrastructure has been a feature of his government. So has been road infrastructure which has opened many rural areas, making travelling easier and enabling rural farmers to ferry their produce easily to better markets. Women are lesser being trampled upon now because of Bingu's empowerment of them. There has been notable improvement in health sector with more infrastructure and incentives for health personnel which has seen a significant reduction in flight of nurses to countries outside Malawi for greener pastures.

He has also cracked down on corruption. There are still cases of corruption going on but the situation has not been as rampant as it was during the time of Muluzi. There has also been relative security for the citizens over the years.

It is on account of the achievements of his government that an opinion poll by one SADC regional body put Bingu way ahead of the rest. His margin of victory in the elections would not be filled even by those of UDF and MCP combined, according to the results by the body, Afro-Barometer.

Pitfalls

It is generally agreed that Bingu has been weak on rule of law. He has at times even questioned and rejected some of the decisions made by the courts, decisions that have not favoured his government. Some fear that given a majority in parliament, Bingu could step over the line and become repressive.

He is not the sort who likes compromises. In all the four previous budget session of parliament, his government side, a minority, has struggled to have the opposition approve the national budget. Not at one time did Bingu move to strike a deal with the opposition for them to change their heart on the budget. Instead, he would lambaste them in mass rallies as being inconsiderate. To a reasonable person, his stance was good anyway, considering the fact that on many such occasions, opposition was just intent on giving Bingu's government a torrid time. And he has been receiving support from sections of the civil society in that regard. But the opposition has been using his toughness to discredit him.

In spite of his good policies and achievements, Bingu is not an eloquent speaker. His lack of verbal power in vernacular makes him unable to articulate his development agenda with such emotional, mass appeal. Some analysts describe this as his undoing because his rivals in the opposition are rabble rousers of sorts who can present even a senseless, vain point into an electoral weapon.

The coming together of MCP and UDF in an alliance against Bingu is a potential threat to his chances of retaining the presidency. He has dismissed the alliance, saying he will effectively deal with both on May 19.


John Tembo & Bakili Muluzi
Malawi Congress Party/United Democratic Front

Muluzi has given up on the presidential race after Malawi Electoral Commission blocked him on the ground that he ruled the country for the constitutional two five-year terms. In response, he has taken his party into an alliance with MCP. This is a formidable combination likely to unsettle Bingu. Muluzi has a large cult following from the South. Tembo has over the years been a cult-hero for the people in the Central region.

In fact, in the 2004 elections, Tembo just narrowly missed the presidency after acquiring a very large number of votes from the Central region where he comes from. His party went on to win the most seats in parliament. All MPs came from the region. Election is a game of numbers and going by this, combined voters behind Muluzi and those behind Tembo makes such a sum Bingu would not just wish away.

This is the major strength of the alliance so far.

The other strength is that both UDF and MCP have diehard supporters who follow their parties at all cost, whether with or without an agenda for the nation. This is the characteristic that Bingu's DPP may not have. The rabble rousers in the alliance are likely to work up the illiterate classes of people. This is the likely spot where Bingu could lose ground. He is technocratic in his leadership and is likely to score highly on educated and knowledgeable people. But these are fewer. And often, these classes of people do not go to vote.


Pitfalls

Some say the alliance is not a threat to Bingu after all because even if Muluzi and Tembo agree on terms or on how they are going to share the cabinet positions after the elections, MCP will not honour the agreements.

Some UDF supporters see this as a wasteful alliance because they believe that what has been done will not serve the interest of the party. The point is that UDF will go to the elections without a candidate of its own and this could be a step closer to its death. This prospect is attributed to Muluzi greed to hold on to the reigns of the party even long before it was clear that he would be barred from standing. The followers argue that Muluzi should have then groomed somebody else to take over from him.

This measures the tough time that UDF has, in part to convince some sections of UDF supporters to vote for Tembo. Tembo is generally associated with the darkness of Malawi's political past. For example, UDF has had an unflinching support from Mangochi, one of districts with the largest number of voters in the country. This is one of the areas Tembo would need so he could shore up his electoral support. Yet this is the district that heavily dislikes Tembo because of this: during the rule of the MCP, Henry Masauko Chipembere was treated by the government then as one of the rebels. When he fled to US, MCP herded everyone in Chipemebere's Moto village to prison for the sins of their son. This has been a very huge scar on MCP's political identity in the district. The alliance must convert such people across the country into voting for Tembo.


It is argued further that the alliance is up against a government that has fulfilled its campaign manifestos. The alliance does not seem to have an alternative to offer. High on the agenda is to just to remove Bingu, an objective coming out of power greed. This is explained further by the fact that the parties are coming together with no unified manifestos.


Their reliance on regional support is premised in the outcomes of the previous elections where people have voted for a candidate from their region. But analysts have cautioned on working on such mathematics as it might not be the case this time. DPP does not have a stronghold region. It is observed that it has a considerable presence in all the regions of the country, so it would win because of those pockets of support.

Perhaps, this comment by a voter in one of the dailies could sum up the spirit of the time.

"Any party would be threatened [by the alliance]. When a bunch of time wasters form an alliance, the strong one is shaken but not thrown off balance. It is a threat but not enough to overthrow Bingu. Even UDF and MCP know that Bingu is a strong guy. Imagine they have had to from an alliance."

http://eltasmw.blogspot.com/2009/04/detailed-analysis-of-leading-parties.html